Risk of Non-Union Estimation for Clavicle Fractures

The management of clavicle fractures is often confusing, however an article in the JBJS, with a review of 858 clavicle fractures managed non-operatively, has provided a useful calculation of the prognosis and risk of non-union.

Ref: Robinson et al. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2004 Jul;86-A(7):1359-65.

Mid-shaft clavicle fractures

Prognostic index = [-0.85 x (1 if displaced or 0 if undisplaced)] + [-0.36 x (1 if female or 0 if male)] + [-0.37 x (1 if comminuted fracture or 0 if noncomminuted fracture)] + [-0.01 x (age of patient in years)].

Lateral third fractures

Prognostic index = [-0.97 x (1 if displaced or 0 if undisplaced)] + [-0.02 x (age of patient in years)].

Examples

A patient with a prognostic index of –2 (for example, a sixty-year-old woman with a displaced, comminuted diaphyseal fracture) has a 72.4% projected probability that the fracture will remain ununited at twelve weeks and a 38.3% probability of nonunion at twenty-four weeks, whereas a patient with a prognostic index of –1 (for example, a twenty-two-year-old man with a displaced but noncomminuted fracture) has a 41.6% probability that the fracture will remain ununited at twelve weeks and only a 7.4% probability of nonunion at twenty-four weeks. This suggests that earlier surgery might be beneficial for patients with a lower prognostic index.

 See the original article here

Clavicle Non-union Risk — Robinson (2004)

Implements Robinson et al. (JBJS 2004) prognostic indices for non-operative clavicle fractures to estimate the risk of non-union. Educational use only.

Step 1 — Fracture region
Step 2 — Patient & injury factors
“Lack of cortical apposition” = displaced in Robinson model.
24-week non-union risk (approx.)
Prognostic Index (PI)
0
−1
−2
~1–2%
7.4%
38.3%
Anchor values are cohort examples from Robinson et al. (see paper figures).
† Educational approximation using published **anchors** (PI −2 → 38.3%, PI −1 → 7.4%, PI ≈0 → ~1–2%). Exact probabilities depend on the study’s baseline hazard; figures provide the reference curves.
Model details & sources
  • Mid-shaft: PI = [−0.85×Displaced] + [−0.36×Female] + [−0.37×Comminuted] + [−0.01×Age]
  • Lateral third: PI = [−0.97×Displaced] + [−0.02×Age]
  • Use the PI to reference the study’s curves (Figures 1 & 2) for 6/12/24-week non-union probabilities.

Robinson CM, et al. Estimating the Risk of Nonunion Following Nonoperative Treatment of a Clavicular Fracture. JBJS Am. 2004;86(7):1359-65. (Tables IV–V; Figures 1–2).

This tool reproduces published cohort models for educational use and is not medical advice. It does not account for all patient- or injury-specific variables.