Risk of Non-Union Estimation for Clavicle Fractures
Clavicle Non-union Risk — Robinson (2004)
Implements Robinson et al. (JBJS 2004) prognostic indices for non-operative clavicle fractures to estimate the risk of non-union. Educational use only.
24-week non-union risk (approx.)†
—
Prognostic Index (PI)
—
0
−1
−2
~1–2%
7.4%
38.3%
Anchor values are cohort examples from Robinson et al. (see paper figures).
† Educational approximation using published **anchors** (PI −2 → 38.3%, PI −1 → 7.4%, PI ≈0 → ~1–2%). Exact probabilities depend on the study’s baseline hazard; figures provide the reference curves.
Model details & sources
- Mid-shaft: PI = [−0.85×Displaced] + [−0.36×Female] + [−0.37×Comminuted] + [−0.01×Age]
- Lateral third: PI = [−0.97×Displaced] + [−0.02×Age]
- Use the PI to reference the study’s curves (Figures 1 & 2) for 6/12/24-week non-union probabilities.
Robinson CM, et al. Estimating the Risk of Nonunion Following Nonoperative Treatment of a Clavicular Fracture. JBJS Am. 2004;86(7):1359-65. (Tables IV–V; Figures 1–2).
This tool reproduces published cohort models for educational use and is not medical advice. It does not account for all patient- or injury-specific variables.